If you buy your own health insurance through the ACA marketplace, 2027 is going to sting — and the reason is two separate things stacking on top of each other. Let me separate them, because they get blurred constantly.
Key Takeaways
- Insurers are proposing a median 14% premium increase for 2027 (KFF, July 2026), with most filings between 10% and 20%.
- The enhanced premium tax credits expired end-2025 and were NOT renewed in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.
- That already pushed after-subsidy premiums up sharply for 2026 as healthier enrollees left the pool.
- The 400%-of-poverty subsidy cliff is back: cross it and you can lose all premium help at once.
- Open enrollment runs November 1, 2026 – January 15, 2027 — plan before then.
What's happening for 2027
Per KFF's July 2026 analysis of preliminary rate filings across 16 states and DC, ACA Marketplace insurers are proposing a median premium increase of 14% for 2027 — a likely second consecutive year of double-digit increases. Of the 77 insurers that had filed by mid-July, most are requesting increases between 10% and 20%, and 20 insurers are requesting more than 20%. If these hold through the rate-review process (rates are finalized in late summer), typical premiums for participating insurers would climb by more than a third between 2025 and 2027.
Why premiums are climbing
Two forces, and it's worth keeping them distinct:
Ordinary cost growth
- Most of the increase reflects normal medical cost growth — hospitalization, physician visits, and prescription drug costs, including rising GLP-1 weight-loss drug demand.
- Labor shortages and general inflation have pushed up provider wages and costs across the system.
Subsidy-driven
- The enhanced premium tax credits from the 2021 American Rescue Plan expired at the end of 2025, and Congress did not renew them in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.
- That pushed healthier, price-sensitive enrollees out of the risk pool, leaving a sicker and more expensive group of remaining enrollees behind.
Breaking the median 14-point increase down into its two drivers makes the split explicit — most of it is the ordinary cost of medicine, not politics:
The subsidy cliff, explained
Here's the mechanic that traps people. With the enhanced credits gone, the old 400%-of-federal-poverty-level cliff is back. Below 400% FPL, you get a tax credit on a sliding scale. At 400% or above — roughly $62,600 for a single person by 2026 FPL figures — you can lose all premium assistance and pay the full, unsubsidized rate.
This is a true cliff, not a ramp. Crossing the threshold by even a small amount can cost you thousands in lost subsidy. If you're near 400% FPL, managing your MAGI (through HSA or retirement contributions) can be worth more than a raise.
The cliff mechanic
One income line decides everything
Your household MAGI
Under 400% FPL
Sliding-scale premium tax credit — the closer to the line, the smaller the credit.
At or over 400% FPL
Zero premium tax credit — you pay the full, unsubsidized sticker price.
There's no phase-out ramp at the top like there is with many tax credits — one dollar over the line and the entire subsidy disappears at once.
Interactive · are you near the subsidy cliff?
The 400% FPL cliff, for your household
Household size
You're at about 0% of the poverty line for a household of 1. The 400% cliff sits at $62,600 — you have about $0 of headroom before losing subsidy eligibility entirely.
Uses the widely-cited 2026 figure of $62,600 as 400% FPL for a household of one, scaled by the standard per-person HHS increment. Poverty guidelines update every January — verify against the current healthcare.gov figures before making coverage decisions. Not tax or insurance advice.
Who gets hit hardest
The 2027 increases primarily hit enrollees just above 400% FPL who no longer qualify for any subsidy at all. People below that level still get some tax credit, but with benchmark premiums themselves rising, the dollar amount they owe out of pocket climbs too — and the subsidy cliff's return is expected to push more people out of the marketplace entirely.
Here's What I'd Actually Do
- Map your MAGI against 400% FPL before December. If you're close, model whether an HSA or pre-tax retirement contribution keeps you under the cliff.
- Shop, don't auto-renew. With this much repricing, last year's best plan may be badly overpriced now. Compare at healthcare.gov during open enrollment.
- Weigh premium vs. deductible. Many insurers are pricing plans with higher deductibles for lower premiums — run your expected usage before picking a plan on premium alone.
- Mark the calendar: Nov 1, 2026 – Jan 15, 2027. Miss it and you're locked out absent a qualifying life event.
Health costs are part of the broader affordability squeeze — see how it fits with the home and auto insurance affordability crisis and the credit-card debt math if rising costs are pushing you toward plastic.
Frequently Asked Questions
Sources & References
- 1.
- 2.How much and why ACA Marketplace premiums are going up in 2027 — Peterson-KFF Health System Tracker, 2026-07-18
- 3.ACA Marketplace Insurers Propose 14% Median Premium Increase in 2027 — MedCity News, 2026-07
- 4.Affordable Care Act Insurers Want More Premium Increases as Enrollment Sags — KFF Health News, 2026-07-18